DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach

Theory of planned behavior models for breastfeeding duration among Hong Kong mothers

Conference Theme: The adventures of nursing practice through research, how far have we come - where to from here

Theory of planned behavior-based models for breastfeeding duration among Hong Kong mothers.

BACKGROUND: The theory of planned behavior (TPB) has been used to explain breastfeeding behaviors in Western cultures. Theoretically-based investigations in other groups are sparse. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate cross-cultural application of TPB-based models for breastfeeding duration among new mothers in Hong Kong. METHOD: First-time breastfeeding mothers (N = 209) with healthy newborns provided self-reports of TPB predictor variables during postpartum hospitalization and information about breastfeeding experiences at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months postdelivery or until they weaned. Three predictive models were proposed: (a) a strict interpretation of the TPB with two added proximal predictors of breastfeeding duration; (b) a replication with modification of the TPB-based model for more fully employed breastfeeding mothers from a previous study (Duckett et al., 1998); and (c) a model that posited perceived control (PC) as a mediating factor linking TPB motivational variables for breastfeeding with breastfeeding intentions and behavior. LISREL was used for the structural equation modeling analyses. RESULTS: Explained variance in PC and duration was high in all models. Overall fit of the strict TPB model was poor (GOFI = 0.85). The TPB for breastfeeding employed women and the PC-mediated models fit equally well (GOFI = 0.94; 0.95) and residuals were small (RMSR = 0.07). All hypothesized paths in the PC-mediated model were significant (p <.05); explained variance was 0.40 for perceived control and 0.36 for breastfeeding duration. DISCUSSION: Models were interpreted in light of the TPB, previous findings, the social context for breastfeeding in Hong Kong, and statistical model-building. Cross-cultural measurement issues and the need for prospective designs are continuing challenges in breastfeeding research.link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Intravenous iron sucrose versus oral iron ferrous sulfate for antenatal and postpartum iron deficiency anemia: a randomized trial

OBJECTIVE: To compare oral iron to intravenous iron administration to women in late pregnancy and/or after labor to correct iron deficiency. METHODS: 271 anemic women (148 pregnant women and 123 women post lower segment caesarean section) with hemoglobin (Hb) levels below 110 g/L were enrolled over a two-year period and randomized to receive either two tablets FGF (ferrous sulfate with folic acid) or 400mg of intravenous iron sucrose plus folic acid 600 mg. Treatment effectiveness was assessed by measuring Hb and ferritin postpartum on day 1, day 14 and day 42. Transfusions of red blood cells and adverse drug reactions were recorded. RESULTS: Data of 214 women were available for analysis. Both forms of iron replacement therapy led to increased hemoglobin and ferritin levels over the testing period. Ferritin was significantly higher in the i.v. iron treatment group compared to the oral iron treatment group (p¼0.004) two weeks after delivery, while Hb values did not differ between the groups. No serious adverse drug reactions were observed. Red blood cell transfusion rate was low (1.9%), with equal rates observed in both treatment groups. CONCLUSION: Intravenous and oral irons were both effective in correcting peripartum anemia, although intravenous iron restored stores faster than oral iron.Bernd Froessler, Carmel Cocchiaro, Khaschayar Saadat-Gilani, Nicolette Hodyl and Gustaaf Dekke